College Football Week 11 – Picks To Pound

Welcome back to Picks to Pound, our handicapping feature here at Elbow Deep. As always, all lines come via Bovada.

Roller coaster of a week last week as I started hot with Bowling Green on Wednesday and my Lock of the Week, Mississippi State, on Thursday night.  The Bulldogs might have been our easiest call of the year.  Way too much credit given to Missouri.  Dak Prescott went into Columbia and laid the wood on ’em.  Fortunately for Jonathan Butler, his boys got whooped so bad that they decided to pack it up and focus on some off-field issues.

After the 2-0 start, I got absolutely shut out.  Temple couldn’t cover at SMU, Duke got smoked, OK State and Bama dominated, and holy hell was I wrong about Memphis.  Paxton Lynch is a stud and the Tigers will upset someone in a bowl game, but Memphis is most definitely not a dark horse title contender. 2-5 on the week. Disgusting.

It comes in waves, though, folks.  Any good handicapper addict knows that the best is right around the corner. The tough get going when the going gets tough, or whatever.  With that said, let’s get back to what we do best: picking winners in the captivating chaos that is #MACtion.

Joe, Tunechi, you know the drill

fat joe tunechi

Midweek MAC Picks To Pound

  • Tuesday, 8:00pm – Kent State +6.5 @ Ohio
  • Tuesday, 8:00pm – #24 Toledo -4 @ Central Michigan
  • Wednesday, 8:00pm – Northern Illinois @ Buffalo +6
  • Wednesday, 8:00pm – Bowling Green -3 @ Western Michigan OVER 75.5

As for the rest of the games this week,

  • Saturday, 12:00pm – Maryland +14 @ #7 Michigan State.

Maryland is a bad football team. On paper there’s potential for a blowout here, but I like Maryland for one reason and one reason only: Michigan State plays down to its opponents.  The only game Sparty has covered this season was that insane comeback win over Michigan when MSU was seven point underdogs.

This game definitely has loser potential because the Spartans are coming off their first loss of the season, a loss that came by way of a bogus missed call by the referees, at that.

MSU is looking to bounce back, and they should win handily, but the Spartans need to show me something before I blindly bet them to cover as favorites again. Maryland is the time to do it, but until then, I’m taking the dogs.

  • Saturday, 3:30pm – Wake Forest @ #5 Notre Dame OVER 52

Wake Forest is terrible, but they still have 14-21 point potential.  Notre Dame is 27 point favorites in this game and while I don’t love that spread, I do love betting overs that are less than twice as much as the predicted point differential.  DeShone Kizer is the 2017 Heisman Trophy winner but he doesn’t know it yet, Will Fuller is a pro, and the Irish defense can force some turnovers. With out without C.J. Prosise, I smell a 40-17 winner.

  • Saturday, 7:15pm – Arkansas @ #2 LSU -7.5. 

Here we’ve got two teams coming from complete opposite ends of the spectrum barreling towards each other.  Bret Bielema ain’t gonna know what hit him. The Razorbacks are 5-4 but trending upwards after pulling off another wild finish in college football to upset Ole Miss in overtime.

LSU, meanwhile, just took its first loss – and a bit of a “gut check” – at the hands of Alabama.  The Tigers are 7-1 and Leonard Fournette has had an incredible season, but Les Miles’ entire team got manhandled by Bama. The Tigers will be looking to reestablish themselves as a top-4 playoff team.  I like LSU to dominate this game and win by at least ten points.

Don’t feel bad for Bret, though. Mrs. Bielema will be waiting at home to cushion his fall.

  • Saturday, 12:30pm – NC State @ #16 Florida State -9.5

Bounce back game for the Seminoles here. Their playoff hopes are dead but there’s plenty of hope to work into a big bowl game and Dalvin Cook is still running like a Heisman candidate.  I like Cook, Quarterback Sean Maguire, and the rest of the FSU offense to breakout after being stifled by Clemson. Seminoles in a rout.

  • Saturday, 3:30pm – #17 Michigan @ Indiana +13
  • Saturday, 3:30pm – SMU @ Navy -21.5

SMU played its best game of the year last week in a tough loss to Temple.  Navy is on fire (and should be ranked in the top-25 by the time this game is played) after absolutely bulldozing contender-turned-pretender Memphis. SMU is certainly an attractive target for let down games, but I don’t think Navy operates that way. No days off at the Academies.  Midshipmen by 28.

  • Saturday, Kentucky +3.5 @ Vanderbilt.

Two terrible teams.  I like Kentucky to win this game outright.  UK Quarterback Patrick Towles is decent, and I can’t bring myself to bet on Vandy football.  Jay Cutty ain’t walking through that door.

  • Saturday, 7:00pm – #22 Temple -3 @ South Florida

Easy money. LOCK OF THE WEEK.  Temple got its letdown game out of the way last week at SMU.  Nobody’s blowing hot air up the Owls’ assholes anymore.  Back to being little old Temple, a safety school in Philly known for trying not to be know for Bill Cosby and that time John Chaney tried to murder Coach Cal

In other word, it’s time for the best linebacker in the country, Tyler Matakevich, and the most underrated running back in the nation, Jahad Thomas, to get back to work. See you in the Zaxby’s Heart of Dallas Bowl, Temple.

Locks of the Week:

BH – tbd

Bud deBurgh tbd

Matty Fudge –  Temple -3 @ South Florida

Upset Alert:

BHtbd

Bud – tbd

Matty Fudge Miami over UNC

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