Thursday Night Picks to Pound

Football:

Florida State -4.5 at Louisville and Over 51.  Action has moved this down from -7.  Take both -4.5 and the over in straight bets, and tease it down 6 points if you can (FSU +2.5/over 45).  That’s a tasty looking teaser.  Parlay these two if you’re feeling frisky.

Troy +26 at Georgia Southern.  The money is moving the line Georgia Southern’s way, but I’m taking Troy. No good reason, just don’t like GS in a rout.

Saints First Half -0.5 at Carolina.  The 1H play is the play of the game.  The final score line opened at -1.5 and has moved to -3.  That means that dumb money is on the Saints.  Ordinarily, I would be on that, too, but coming off of a huge win against the Packers, this feels like a trap game for New Orleans.  Cam Newton might have some late-game heroics up his sleeve.  Take New Orleans to cover a one point lead in the first half, then sleep easy or double down on a Halftime bet depending on how the game is going.  The Saints (-160) Money Line might be worth a try if you’re confident in them tonight.

Basketball:

All we have for now is NBA, which can be dicey, but there are a few picks that I like.

Detroit Pistons +4 at Minnesota Timberwolves.  The Pistons will not be that bad this year, the T-Wolves won’t be poop either, but they’ll be worse that Detroit.  Under Stan Van Gundy, Detroit will play better defense and more efficient offense, and they have a big front line that I’ll take over a young Minnesota team. I think this line is totally based on home-court, and I don’t buy that in Minneapolis. Also, take DET in my Thursday Night Parlay, mentioned below.

Washington Wizards -5 at Orlando Magic.  You never know first game of the year, but I think the Wiz start where they left off.  John Wall, Paul Pierce, & Co should be able to handle a very young Magic team with a rookie point guard (Elfrid Payton) playing his first game. I also like the ML (-180).

New York Knicks @ Cleveland Cavs.  Notice, neither side is in Italics.  I’m not touching this spread (CLE -12).  The Knicks got trounced last night by a very good Chicago team that plays the best team defense in the NBA.  Nueva York is implementing the Triangle offense this season, and you can’t use the Bulls as a test dummy.  Cleveland will be excellent this season, but they will play considerably worse defense than Chicago (at this point!).  Tonight is the Cavs’ first game together, and even though they might score 120, they still might give up 109 if Melo gets going early.  This will be a fun game to watch, but the only play here is to put a small unit on the KNICKS MONEY LINE (+760).  New York does not want to get embarrassed two nights in a row against the East’s two premier teams.  Play that ML small and hope that Cleveland needs some time to figure each other out.

Thursday Night Parlay:

All Money Lines: Florida State/Pistons/Wizards. Throw the Saints in there if you’re feeling crazy, too.

Good luck and godspeed.

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